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Seven years ago, a mere eight words to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution in Position & Closed Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document & Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.