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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."